Analysis Suggestion: Thucydides Trap May Not Fit US-China Relations
According to the South China Morning Post, the long-debated Thucydides Trap may not accurately reflect the reality of US-China relations, as both nations appear capable of sharing the global stage without escalating to war.
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The South China Morning Post reports that the Thucydides Trap, which has been a central theme in discussions for the past decade, may be an inaccurate representation of the current situation. The publication notes that both Beijing and Washington are demonstrating an ability to coexist on the international stage without conflict.
The term is frequently employed in commentary regarding the relationship between the US and China, and the South China Morning Post observes that disagreements are often dismissed as unavoidable regardless of the actual events. However, examining the actual conduct of the two governments, rather than relying solely on pundit descriptions, suggests a different narrative. Currently, both sides are opting for a diplomatic approach that is comparable to signaling before altering a course.
Any examination of a power transition must begin with an assessment of power itself. Regarding the current standing of the two superpowers, the South China Morning Post states that by market exchange rates, the US economy was valued at approximately US$30.6 trillion in 2025, while China's economy was valued at US$19.4 trillion, which places China's economy at roughly 63 per cent of the size of the US.
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