Economist Predicts Guyana Could Nearly Double Natural Resource Fund Withdrawals to US$4.35 Billion in 2027

Kaieteur News reported that the Government of Guyana could withdraw approximately US$4.35 billion from the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) in 2027, nearly double the amount projected for this year, as rising oil revenues allow for greater funding of public spending. This projection comes from Ramesh Gampat, an economist, in a recent paper published by the Guyana Business Journal (GBJ) titled “Guyana’s Oil Economy: Structural Challenges and Policy Responses, 2020–2026,” on November 1, 2026. Gampat noted that despite being the world's fastest-growing economy, Guyana is also one of the slowest to change.

The paper examines the structural issues created or deepened by the oil boom, along with solutions proposed by researchers, international institutions, and the government, and the extent to which the government has adopted, modified, or implemented these suggestions. The analysis utilizes data from the Bank of Guyana, the Ministry of Finance, the IMF, and the World Bank, comparing macroeconomic ratios against both overall and non-oil GDP.

Gampat stated that while visible issues like a debt crisis and high inflation have been avoided, subtle signs of the resource curse are already present. He described the economy as dual: a foreign-owned oil enclave expanding rapidly alongside a domestic economy growing much slower. Outside of gold, whose value fluctuates with global prices, the non-oil export base has either shrunk or remained stagnant.

The economist pointed out that foreign exchange is scarce despite balance-of-payments surpluses because non-oil imports have increased more than twice as fast as non-oil exports, and the central bank partially finances the budget. Gampat observed that although Guyana allocates more to health and education than many comparable nations, the results are weaker than 80% of those countries. He attributed these problems to corruption, elite capture, and ethnic and regional inequality, which oil rents make more attractive to capture.

Regarding the government's response, Gampat explained that it has involved legislation and spending, including establishing a savings fund, local content initiatives, and new petroleum laws. However, in 2024, the state relaxed withdrawal rules on the oil account and increased statutory debt ceilings to support record public investment and cash transfers. Gampat mentioned that withdrawals in 2025 slightly exceeded the amount the fund received. He stated that while much has been implemented in terms of inputs, little has been achieved in terms of outcomes such as export diversification, cheaper power, human capital, and clean procurement.

The economist suggested the government has adopted a selective approach, accepting