OECD Upgrades Guyana's Country Risk Classification to Four

According to the Guyana Times, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has upgraded Guyana's country risk classification from Five to Four, with the change taking effect on October 16, 2026. Senior Minister with Responsibility for Finance Dr Ashni Singh stated that Guyana's economic strength and sound fiscal management continue to bolster global confidence in the nation's creditworthiness. This positive change is reflected in the OECD’s most recent Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits.

Dr Singh commented that this development serves as a significant indicator of ongoing confidence in Guyana's economy and reflects growing worldwide acknowledgment of the Government's sound fiscal management, strong economic fundamentals, and particularly its creditworthiness to the international community.

Under the OECD’s Country Risk Classification framework, a scale ranging from 0 to Seven is utilized to establish minimum premium rates for officially supported export credits, where 0 signifies negligible country credit risk and Seven represents the highest risk. Based on the recent classifications released by the OECD Secretariat on Friday, Guyana is now situated in Category Four, alongside countries including the Bahamas, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Panama, Paraguay, and South Africa.

This represents Guyana's second upgrade in recent years, following a prior improvement from Six to Five in 2022. The Finance Minister noted that among all classified countries, Guyana was one of only two countries upgraded in this current round, making the achievement particularly noteworthy.

Dr Singh welcomed the upgrade and the recognition of Guyana's progress, expressing gratitude to the OECD Secretariat and to the capitals and representatives of OECD Member States, all of whom were instrumental in securing this important upgrade for the country. He explained that over the past five years, Guyana has established a record of renewed fiscal prudence and macroeconomic stability, with progress evident across every major indicator.

Between 2020 and 2025, Guyana's real GDP expanded at an average annual rate of 37.3 per cent, primarily due to the increase in offshore crude oil production. Concurrently, the non-oil economy grew by an average of 8.2 per cent annually over the same period, suggesting that growth was not limited to the oil and gas sector. Furthermore, price stability was maintained, with headline inflation averaging 3.5 per cent, and the Government implemented measures to mitigate the effects of global supply and energy shocks between 2021 and 2023.

Guyana's debt dynamics have also shown marked improvement. Total public debt-to-GDP decreased from 47.4 per cent at the close of 2020 to 28.6 percent by the end of 2025, and external debt fell from 24.1 per cent to 10.8 percent of GDP. The ratio of debt service to Government revenue contracted from eight per cent in 2020 to five per cent in 2025, and external debt service amounted to only 0.8 per cent of exports.

Additionally, Guyana's fiscal buffers have deepened. The Natural Resource Fund concluded 2025 with a balance of US$3.3 billion, which surpassed the total stock of external debt, and had increased to approximately US$5.5 billion by the end of September of this year.

Following the International Monetary Fund 2026 Article IV consultation, the IMF indicated that Guyana's robust economic growth remained supported by prudent macroeconomic policies, highlighting the nation's "diversification, resilience, and sustainability, while building buffers through continued rapid NRF accumulation and maintaining one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the Western Hemisphere."

Regarding the significance of the OECD's recent upgrade, the Finance Ministry noted that the classification determines the minimum premium charged by export credit agencies on officially supported credits, meaning an improved rating directly reduces the cost of financing for capital goods that Guyana imports for public investment procured through export credit agencies. Beyond export credit, the reclassification signals to international lenders and development partners when they are determining borrowing costs for the Government, leading to better access to affordable financing for Guyana.

The Ministry further stated that borrowing will continue under the same disciplined approach that led to the current debt levels, with new financing being directed toward projects exhibiting clear economic returns, prioritizing the cheapest available sources, and keeping overall debt within prudent limits. Nevertheless, the Ministry reiterated the Guyana Government's dedication to managing its public finances and debt with the same discipline that facilitated this reclassification, collaborating with international and local partners to ensure Guyana's continued swift and sustained development.