Analysts Suggest Chinese Export Momentum May Face Limits Despite Near-Term Growth Potential
A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that while Chinese exports are expected to maintain strong momentum in the near term, continued growth in the longer term will depend on stronger economic expansion in importing nations.
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Based on reporting by South China Morning Post:
According to a report from Goldman Sachs, which was led by the chief China economist Hui Shan, there is still capacity for Chinese exports to sustain their robust pace for at least the next few years. However, the report suggests that for Chinese export gains to continue over a longer period, stronger economic growth will be necessary in the economies that import from China.
Even when considering the bank's most conservative forecast, China's real exports are projected to increase by 8 per cent annually in the near term, despite the nation recording a trade surplus of US$1.2 trillion last year.
The report noted that a significant portion of this recent momentum stemmed from supply-side factors within China, as export volumes have increased since 2021 even as profitability across various industries has decreased. For instance, in the automotive sector, the export value nearly doubled between 2021 and 2025, while profit margins saw a decline from 6.4 per cent to 4.8 per cent.
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